Why the future looks bright for Labour.

December 12th 2019 was one of the darkest days in the varied history of the Labour Party. Indeed, last year’s nightmare before Christmas was Labour’s worst election result for almost 100 years. The post-mortem of that performance spoke of a party with deep-seated issues. With this in mind, you might be surprised to hear that I, as a member of the Labour Party, currently feel moderately positive about my party’s prospects. Labour are certainly in a rut, but I believe that they have everything they need to pull themselves out of it, especially with the recent changes in the party leadership. In this article, I will try and give you a whistle-stop tour of my reasons to be cheerful if you vote Labour. This post is for all of you left-leaners who need cheering up - this is for all of you who vote Tory: get lost.

As I have already mentioned, the recent change in Labour’s party leadership has somewhat alleviated my post-election woes. Indeed, I perceive Keir Starmer’s appointment as party leader to be the main beacon of hope for the Opposition, for several reasons. Firstly, I think it became obvious after the December election that Corbyn needed to go: as much as I liked him, the wider electorate did not, as he polled-in way below Johnson (who wasn’t even highly rated himself!) pre-election. I detected a real stodginess in the party with Corbyn at the helm: he couldn’t shake his inextricable link with antisemitism, nor could he ever really proffer himself as a credible prime minister. Graham Jones, the former Labour whip and MP for Hyndburn, said that “Four of five voters would not vote for Corbyn.” The party needed a leadership refresh, and that’s exactly what we got with Starmer. Not only does the new man appear to attract wider support (he’s currently garnering the best opposition leader ratings since Blair in the mid-90s), but his vision has taken Labour back towards the centre, which, like it or not (I do not), makes the party easier to vote for (if you’re a halfwit), I think. Labour’s policies last December were generally well received - unfortunately, people got hung up on Corbyn. The Labour Together General Election review discovered that doubts about Labour’s leadership ‘stoked a perception that (the manifesto) was not deliverable.’ Imagine, then, a popular candidate like Starmer presiding over a popular manifesto - you’d have all the ingredients for a Labour Government. Think about it.

Last year’s fateful winter vote was known as ‘The Brexit Election’ for a reason. The European question ‘heavily shaped voters’ choices’, as Sir John Curtice put it. Three years of Laura Kuenssberg’s mind-numbing Brexit chat unsurprisingly resulted in a romping victory for the ‘Get Brexit Done’ campaign (2 million previous non-voters turned out to put the Scot out of a job.) Labour weren’t just competing to present the best policies (a competition they actually won) - they also had to somehow convince the beleaguered majority NOT to vote for the ‘easy’ (Get Brexit Done) option. As if this wasn’t difficult enough, Labour’s proposed solution to Brexit was impossible to summarise with a single word (either ‘Remain’ or ‘Leave’). Corbyn’s party was not the obvious answer for either side of the euro-debate, as such, and so Labour had a sizable (albeit self-imposed) handicap in this election. ‘Why is this relevant?’ I hear you cry - well, simply, I’m working on the assumption that Brexit won’t be an issue in the next election, and so, an inhibiting weight is lifted from Labour’s shoulders. The seats that turned from Labour to the Conservatives in 2019 were mainly ones which had voted to leave: at least 52% of the electorate were switched off to Labour in the previous election, due to Brexit; I’d like to think that this won't be the case next time round. I’m hopeful that Labour can manufacture another quality manifesto for the next election - a quality manifesto that won’t be shackled by Brexit. That is why I fancy Labour for future success.

If you haven’t been lulled into hopefulness yet (assuming any readers vote Labour), you might as well stop reading now. The reasons to be cheerful I’ve identified so far would definitely crumble under scrutiny, but I have at least tried to ground them in fact. What I’m moving onto now is purely conjecture, so there’s little to be gained if you haven’t already bought into my naivety. With this wordy disclaimer out of the way, it’s high-time for me to deliver my final points. In order to do so, I’m delving into the past - after all, it’s not the first time that Labour have been cut-adrift. Following their loss in the 1979 election, for example, Labour were snubbed thrice more before their return to the hot seat in 1996. It would just so happen that, at time of writing, Labour are on another four election loss-streak. Do you see what I’m getting at? History would suggest that Labour are due an election win, and I’m not someone to question history (I support Liverpool). It’s also worth considering that, as Labour’s stock is currently so low, they can only better their current position. Surely we can’t stoop any lower than the 59 seats lost last year - surely?!? I’d say Labour’s scope for improvement in the next election is much greater than the potential for any further losses (although, an article I’ve read recently, about long-term demographic shifts, might suggest otherwise.)

Up to this point in the article, I’ve really tried to side-line my formidable distaste for everything Tory - I can do this no more. The Conservative Party cabinet is a hive of villainy and scum - the latest week in politics illustrates as such clearly (https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1285550820214349826?s=20), but this is no deviation from a decade of incompetence. There’s a reason for my assault on the party in Government - what I’m saying is that I’m sick of the Tories, and I’m willing to believe that the normal punter is too. We’re only a few months into the term of this latest Tory Government, but things are worse than ever at the top, especially with Cummings’ lingering presence. I’d like to think that, by the time of the next election, the electorate will have grown so sick of Conservatives in charge that Labour romps home. Ever since Blair’s demise, Labour have repeatedly failed to muster a standout candidate for elections - things are different with Starmer, who has already begun outclassing Johnson in the few parliamentary spats they’ve had. If prolonged Tory Governance has given way to malaise in the Electorate, as I suggested, then surely Sir Keir stands an excellence chance at becoming next Prime Minister, especially if his good form continues. He was the refresh that Labour needed - hopefully the electorate can see that he’s spearheading the refresh that the country at large needs too.

I’d like to finish things off by raising a question: did Labour have enough time to prepare for the last Election? The obvious answer would be yes - they voted the Early Election Act through parliament, for flips sake. This happened in late October though, merely a month (and a bit) before the set election date, and Labour didn’t really have a choice - obstructing the election would’ve cemented them in the common-mind as Brexit-blockers. America is well on its way down the campaign trail as we speak, five months ahead of their election (although, the culture is different over there, I admit.) The Opposition parties weren’t given much time to crank their campaign machines into action - the Tories, meanwhile, had a ready-made campaign in the lack of Brexit. The stakes were uneven - the consequences of which were clear in Labour’s defeat. Natalie Fleet, who lost the seat of Ashfield to a Tory, said that ‘Labour’s election machine faltered from the beginning of the campaign’. She told the Guardian that the campaign “...felt a bit chaotic. Labour said they were ready, but they weren’t.” The infrastructure of the campaign was still being “...set up as the campaign started.” she claimed. Fleet’s remarks backup my instinct that Labour weren’t adequately prepared for the last election. Jeremy Corbyn was effectively in a job interview before he’d finished brushing his teeth or had time to sort out his tie. If 2024 is the year of our next election, this handicap should be removed from the opposition parties; Labour will hopefully have ample time to get their house in order before gunning for 10 Downing Street. Quite frankly, we’re going to need all the time we can get if we’re to win the vote in 4 years' time: in order for Labour to achieve a majority in Parliament, they’ll need to increase their number of MPs by an unprecedented 60%. This sounds daunting, but I have faith - these are unprecedented times, after all.

You’ve probably spent more time reading this article than Labour had in preparation for the last election (just kidding, I doubt anyone has made it to this point in my post). You’ll be glad to hear that my rambling is almost over, then. Before I go, I implore you not to read too deeply into my analysis - I’ve tried to thicken my case with facts and expert opinion, but I’ll admit that there’s a bit of conformational bias at play. This has been an exercise in wishful thinking; I just hope that my reasoning isn’t too far-fetched. Moreover, if any of my fellow Labour-voters are reading this post, I hope that my musings have gone some way to numbing your political aches. With that said, I’m about done. I’d just like to use my final words to ask you to listen to the podcast I’ve recorded in review of the 2019 Election (https://soundcloud.com/user-771405746/general-election-2019-in-review/s-CYiebnjXgcm). Thanks.

Please tweet me (@Torpaldo) with your opinions on Labour’s future! I’d also like to hear what you thought about my article.
Thanks for reading.


Sources:
Commons Library:
(https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/elections-elections/general-election-2019-brexit/)
Vox article:
(https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/world/2019/12/13/21004755/uk-election-2019-jeremy-corbyn-labour-defeat)
MSN article:
(https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/keir-starmer-scores-highest-ratings-of-any-opposition-leader-since-tony-blair-in-mid-90s/ar-BB15nQao?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds)
John Curtice BBC article: (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/election-2019-50659248)
Guardian articles:
(Labour: dysfunctional 'toxic culture' led to defeat, major report finds | Labour | The Guardian)
(The Guardian view on the 2019 election result: a new political landscape | General election 2019 | The Guardian)

(Corbyn, antisemitism and Brexit: Labour MPs on why they lost | Labour | The Guardian)